BTC price outlook: Coinbase sees December ‘Santa rally’ on macro tailwinds and potential Fed rate cut

Bitcoin  could be setting up for a December recovery, as improving global liquidity and rising odds of a United States Federal Reserve rate cut create supportive “macro tailwinds,” according to new research from Coinbase Institutional. The crypto pur community is watching closely, though, with analysts warning that any hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could cap upside even if a cut is delivered.​

Coinbase: liquidity, M2 and Fed cut odds favor a December bounce

In its latest monthly outlook, Coinbase Institutional argues that crypto may be poised for a December rebound as global M2 money supply trends turn more supportive and market-based odds of a Fed rate cut have climbed above 90% in early December. The firm had previously forecast “weakness” heading into Q4 followed by a “December reversal,” using a proprietary global M2 index that tracks the broad fiat money supply as a leading indicator for risk assets, including Bitcoin and other blockchain technology plays.​

Despite that constructive macro setup, Coinbase notes that market sentiment remains dominated by fear, with both institutional and retail investors hesitant to commit fresh capital until exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows stabilize again. This divergence stronger macro backdrop but cautious positioning, has left prices in limbo, but could also provide fuel for a sharper move if conditions flip risk-on.​

Fed decision and Powell’s tone are key for early 2026

Analysts say the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could unleash a classic “Santa rally” if the Fed cuts rates and signals a shift toward easier policy. Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin, co-founder of the Coin Bureau educational platform, told Cointelegraph that if the Fed lowers rates on December 10 and simultaneously ends quantitative tightening (QT), there may be “little standing in the way” of a year-end Bitcoin rally absent any major geopolitical shocks.

However, Puckrin stressed that investors will dissect every word from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the post-meeting press conference for clues about 2026 policy direction. If Powell sticks to a hawkish tone emphasizing inflation risks, warning about renewed hikes, or downplaying future cuts, markets could interpret that as a ceiling on any short-term Bitcoin strength, even if a cut is delivered. That would likely show up quickly in crypto news and broader risk-asset sentiment.

Analysts see November weakness as macro-driven, expect bounce

Several market participants tie Bitcoin’s weak November performance directly to Powell’s earlier hawkish messaging and macro jitters rather than any deterioration in onchain fundamentals. Chris Kim, co-founder and CEO of onchain quant fund Axis, which manages around 100 million dollars in live capital, said the “biggest driver right now is macro” and that his team is “leaning toward a recovery” into year-end.

From a technical perspective, Kim notes that Bitcoin has already retested the 80,000 dollar region and the 100‑week moving average levels many chart watchers view as important long-term support. He also points to incremental positives, such as Vanguard’s decision to allow trading in spot Bitcoin ETFs , as another tailwind for institutional adoption and liquidity. For crypto pur traders, that combination of supportive macro, key technical retests, and ETF accessibility strengthens the case for a bounce.

Dovish Fed in 2026? Speculation on Kevin Hassett

Looking beyond December, another potential bullish narrative for Bitcoin and the wider blockchain ecosystem is growing speculation that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett could be tapped as the next Fed Chair in early 2026. According to Kim and other analysts, Hassett is seen as notably more dovish than Powell, and his appointment would likely signal a friendlier environment for risk assets and crypto over the medium term.

For long‑horizon crypto pur investors, a structurally more accommodative Fed combined with rising global M2 and maturing ETF infrastructure could underpin a multi-year tailwind for Bitcoin and major blockchain technology projects. In the near term, though, all eyes remain on the December FOMC decision and Powell’s tone, which will likely dictate whether the much‑anticipated “Santa rally” truly arrives or gets delayed into early 2026.