Fundstrat 2026 crypto outlook flags early-year pullback, diverging from Tom Lee’s bullish calls

A circulating 2026 crypto outlook attributed to Fundstrat Global Advisors is warning of a meaningful pullback in the first half of 2026, setting notably lower downside targets for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana than many recent public forecasts circulating in crypto news and the wider crypto pur community. The tone appears to clash with Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee’s recent highly bullish comments on stage.

Reported Fundstrat note: downside targets for BTC, ETH, and SOL

Screenshots shared on social media suggest the internal Fundstrat strategy document calls for a “meaningful drawdown” in early 2026. In that scenario:

• Bitcoin is seen potentially falling into the 60,000–65,000 dollar range.
• Ether could retrace toward roughly 1,800–2,000 dollars.
• Solana might slide into a 50–75 dollar band.

The report frames these levels as possible pullback zones before higher‑conviction buying opportunities later in 2026. At the time of publication, the material had not been publicly released by Fundstrat, and its authenticity had not been independently verified, though multiple crypto‑focused accounts claimed it was distributed to internal clients. The document is reportedly authored by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, rather than Tom Lee himself.

Tom Lee’s public stance: ETH ‘grossly undervalued’ and BTC to $250K

The leaked outlook contrasts sharply with Tom Lee’s recent public messaging. At Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Lee said Bitcoin could reach 250,000 dollars “within months,” positioning BTC as a major beneficiary of improving macro liquidity and institutional flows. He also described Ether at around 3,000 dollars as “grossly undervalued.”

In that presentation, Lee argued that if ETH were simply to revert to its eight‑year average ratio versus Bitcoin, its fair value could approach 12,000 dollars. A return to the 2021 relative peak would imply ETH around 22,000 dollars, while an ETH/BTC ratio in the 0.25 area would suggest theoretical valuations above 60,000 dollars per coin. In November, he further claimed Ether is entering the same kind of “supercycle” that saw Bitcoin’s price multiply more than 100x from 2017 onward, reinforcing his long‑term bullish view.

The apparent tension between a cautious internal downside roadmap and Lee’s aggressive upside scenarios highlights an important nuance: strategy teams often model risk cases and drawdown paths for clients, even when headline forecasts remain strongly optimistic over a multi‑year horizon.

BitMine keeps buying Ether despite market jitters

Lee’s conviction is also reflected in actions taken at BitMine, the digital asset firm closely associated with him. Despite a weakening market backdrop and broader risk‑off sentiment, BitMine has continued to aggressively add Ether to its balance sheet. A December 8 disclosure indicated the company held nearly 3.9 million ETH as of December 7, after purchasing more than 138,000 ETH in just one week.

By BitMine’s own estimates, that stash now represents over 3.2% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, an enormous single‑entity bet on the long‑term success of the network and its role in the future of blockchain technology. For the crypto pur community, that level of accumulation amid fear suggests Lee and his team are positioning for a multi‑year upside scenario, even if they acknowledge the risk of significant interim pullbacks like those outlined in the Fundstrat note.

How crypto investors can read the mixed signals

For traders and long‑term holders trying to synthesize this information:

• The reported Fundstrat strategy memo highlights realistic downside zones for BTC, ETH, and SOL in an early‑2026 correction, useful for stress‑testing portfolios and planning cash levels.
• Tom Lee’s public commentary and BitMine’s accumulation show strong belief in a larger crypto supercycle, particularly for Ether, despite nearer‑term volatility.
• The gap between internal risk scenarios and external bullish theses is not unusual in professional research firms often provide both bear‑case levels and long‑run targets so clients can navigate different macro paths.

From a broader crypto news and blockchain technology perspective, the key takeaway is that serious players are preparing for both: an extended structural bull trend driven by adoption, and the likelihood of one or more sizeable corrections along the way. For crypto pur investors, that means balancing conviction with risk management planning for the drawdowns Fundstrat models, while recognizing that firms like BitMine are using those very dips to build oversized positions in assets they believe will define the next era of decentralized finance.