Maelstrom Warns of HYPE Token Pressure as $11.9B Unlock Looms: Market Faces Critical Test
The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token is bracing for a significant supply shock, as Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund warns of the “first true test” for the cryptocurrency’s price stability and market sustainability. Starting November 29, a 24-month vesting schedule will unlock nearly $12 billion worth of HYPE tokens putting monthly supply overhang at an estimated $410 million and generating widespread debate about how the market will absorb the new liquidity.
$500 Million in Monthly Unlocks: The Sword of Damocles
Hyperliquid’s upcoming team token unlocks will see approximately $500 million in HYPE tokens entering circulation each month, driven primarily by vesting for core contributors. Current buybacks designed to stabilize the token price are calculated to absorb only about 17% of this influx, leaving a massive $410 million per month at risk of hitting open market exchanges.
Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert urged the community to recognize the emotional and financial impact on long-time contributors:
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life-changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away”.
Can Token Treasuries Absorb the Shock?
Efforts to build digital asset treasuries (DATs) such as Sonnet BioTherapeutics and joint ventures like Rorschach do help support HYPE liquidity, with recent funds aggregating over $583 million in HYPE and $305 million in cash dedicated for buybacks. However, Maelstrom notes these treasury initiatives remain “just a drop in the bucket compared against impending HYPE unlocks,” underlining the monumental supply challenge facing HYPE price resilience.
Intensifying Competition and Whale Withdrawals
HYPE faces not only internal selling pressure but also mounting competition from new decentralized exchanges like Aster. Backed by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, Aster’s TVL briefly crossed $2 billion after launching its ASTER token, putting competitive stress on Hyperliquid’s dominance. Meanwhile, whales have begun to withdraw and, in some cases, sell large HYPE holdings, further stoking concerns about downward price risk as the vesting date nears.
Arthur Hayes’ Position and Price Projection
Arthur Hayes, once a vocal supporter and large holder of HYPE, recently sold all his tokens, using the proceeds reportedly as a deposit on a Ferrari. Despite this move, Hayes maintains a bullish long-term vision, predicting a 126x rally for HYPE by 2028 if tokenomics and market growth align with Hyperliquid’s vision for the global stablecoin sector. Hayes believes that continued fiat debasement and increased adoption could still propel HYPE’s value to exponential new heights even as the short-term vesting wave threatens volatility.
What to Watch: Key Technical and Market Levels
- Monthly unlocks: $500 million in new tokens released, $410 million not absorbed by buybacks.
- Short-term support: Price support levels for HYPE lie near $42–$39; a breakdown could signal larger declines.
- All-time high: HYPE recently hit $59.29, but faces major resistance if supply shocks trigger de-risking.
- Market sentiment: Community must watch for coordinated buyback strategies, newly created DAOs, and competitive token launches aiming to siphon liquidity.
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The next 24 months will prove pivotal for Hyperliquid and HYPE holders: whether the project can weather this historic unlocking event without a severe price drawdown will depend on community coordination, strategic buybacks, and continued ecosystem growth in the face of mounting competition.# Maelstrom Warns of HYPE Token Pressure as $11.9B Unlock Looms: Market Faces Critical Test
The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token is bracing for a significant supply shock, as Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund warns of the “first true test” for the cryptocurrency’s price stability and market sustainability. Starting November 29, a 24-month vesting schedule will unlock nearly $12 billion worth of HYPE tokens putting monthly supply overhang at an estimated $410 million and generating widespread debate about how the market will absorb the new liquidity.
$500 Million in Monthly Unlocks: The Sword of Damocles
Hyperliquid’s upcoming team token unlocks will see approximately $500 million in HYPE tokens entering circulation each month, driven primarily by vesting for core contributors. Current buybacks—designed to stabilize the token price are calculated to absorb only about 17% of this influx, leaving a massive $410 million per month at risk of hitting open market exchanges.
Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert urged the community to recognize the emotional and financial impact on long-time contributors:
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life-changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away”.
Can Token Treasuries Absorb the Shock?
Efforts to build digital asset treasuries (DATs) such as Sonnet BioTherapeutics and joint ventures like Rorschach do help support HYPE liquidity, with recent funds aggregating over $583 million in HYPE and $305 million in cash dedicated for buybacks. However, Maelstrom notes these treasury initiatives remain “just a drop in the bucket compared against impending HYPE unlocks,” underlining the monumental supply challenge facing HYPE price resilience.
Intensifying Competition and Whale Withdrawals
HYPE faces not only internal selling pressure but also mounting competition from new decentralized exchanges like Aster. Backed by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, Aster’s TVL briefly crossed $2 billion after launching its ASTER token, putting competitive stress on Hyperliquid’s dominance. Meanwhile, whales have begun to withdraw and, in some cases, sell large HYPE holdings, further stoking concerns about downward price risk as the vesting date nears.
Arthur Hayes’ Position and Price Projection
Arthur Hayes, once a vocal supporter and large holder of HYPE, recently sold all his tokens, using the proceeds reportedly as a deposit on a Ferrari. Despite this move, Hayes maintains a bullish long-term vision, predicting a 126x rally for HYPE by 2028 if tokenomics and market growth align with Hyperliquid’s vision for the global stablecoin sector. Hayes believes that continued fiat debasement and increased adoption could still propel HYPE’s value to exponential new heights even as the short-term vesting wave threatens volatility.
What to Watch: Key Technical and Market Levels
- Monthly unlocks: $500 million in new tokens released, $410 million not absorbed by buybacks.
- Short-term support: Price support levels for HYPE lie near $42–$39; a breakdown could signal larger declines.
- All-time high: HYPE recently hit $59.29, but faces major resistance if supply shocks trigger de-risking.
- Market sentiment: Community must watch for coordinated buyback strategies, newly created DAOs, and competitive token launches aiming to siphon liquidity.
The next 24 months will prove pivotal for Hyperliquid and HYPE holders: whether the project can weather this historic unlocking event without a severe price drawdown will depend on community coordination, strategic buybacks, and continued ecosystem growth in the face of mounting competition.
