Bitcoin Returns Will Be Strong but ‘Not Spectacular’ Over Next Decade: Bitwise
In the latest crypto news, optimism around Bitcoin remains tempered as Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts that while the top cryptocurrency will continue to deliver strong returns over the next 10 years, the explosive, high-volatility rallies of the past may be behind us.
Hougan, known for his measured and data-driven perspective on digital assets, said Bitcoin is entering a new phase of market maturity marked by gradual, sustainable growth supported by institutional involvement rather than speculative mania.
“I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns,” Hougan said in an interview with CNBC on Friday. “It’s not spectacular returns, but strong returns lower volatility, some ups and downs.”
A Decade of Steady Gains Ahead
Even as Bitcoin BTC$87,961 trades around 30% below its October all-time high of $125,100, Hougan remains confident in his forecast that 2026 will be another positive year for the digital asset. He believes slow-moving institutional buying will continue to underpin Bitcoin’s price during potential downturns, stabilizing the market in ways unseen in previous cycles.
“I think next year will be up,” Hougan reaffirmed, noting that the overall macro environment favors steady institutional accumulation rather than wild speculative rebounds.
His forecast aligns with Bitwise’s long-term view that Bitcoin will increasingly resemble a digital form of gold, offering consistent returns as global confidence in blockchain technology and decentralized assets grows.
Retail Momentum and Market Cycles
Despite hitting record highs earlier in the year, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum into December. According to Hougan, part of this slump stems from the “fast-moving retail crowd” rotating out of positions in anticipation of the next four-year market cycle downturn.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $87,818, down nearly 4% in the last month, according to CoinMarketCap.
Sebastian Beau, CIO of ReserveOne, noted that the current cycle has triggered debate about whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year pattern marked by parabolic booms and deep corrections is officially fading. “All-time highs were $125,000 in early October, and we’re now bordering on $87,000 down 30% relatively quickly, pretty painful,” Beau said.
Hougan countered that even with a 30% correction, the durability of Bitcoin’s price proves how far the market has evolved. “In past cycles, we saw 60% drawdowns. The difference now is persistent, long-term institutional buying. That kind of slow accumulation is what’s stabilizing this asset class.”
Institutional Confidence Offsets Volatility
Large institutions ranging from hedge funds to corporate treasuries continue to play a growing role in the blockchain ecosystem. These participants, Hougan said, help dampen volatility by creating more predictable demand.
For crypto pur investors, this trend signals a maturing environment where Bitcoin behaves less like a speculative tech stock and more like a stable macro asset class.
However, not everyone shares Bitwise’s optimism. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could drop as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, citing signs of exhaustion near previous highs.
The Trump Effect and Market Outlook
Bitcoin entered 2025 on a strong note, climbing to $109,000 shortly after Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, which initially fueled hopes of a long-lasting rally due to the administration’s pro-crypto rhetoric.
But Hougan argues that any additional political boost has already been priced in. “There’s not much more they can marginally do for Bitcoin,” he said, emphasizing that clearer regulations and broader recognition of Bitcoin as a commodity were the real catalysts earlier this year.
Beau echoed this sentiment: “We already know Bitcoin is classified as a commodity, and that has been clarified by the SEC. The fundamentals are solid, it’s the market psychology and liquidity cycles that will guide the next moves.”
A Mature Era for Blockchain and Bitcoin
For Hougan and many in the crypto pur community, Bitcoin’s shift toward stable, lower-volatility growth represents progress rather than stagnation. As institutional demand continues to rise, blockchain technology is evolving from a disruptive experiment into the backbone of a steady, well-regulated digital financial system.
In short, the coming decade may not deliver the explosive booms seen in past bull markets, but according to Bitwise, it will reward patience with reliable returns marking Bitcoin’s official transition from a speculative asset to a cornerstone of modern blockchain finance.
