Bitcoin Holders See First 30-Day Stretch of Realized Losses Since Late 2023
Bitcoin holders have flipped to net realized losses over the past 30 days for the first time since late 2023, signaling increased selling pressure from investors who accumulated BTC at higher prices. This shift is occurring as global markets react to heightened geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade rhetoric, with capital rotating toward traditional safe havens such as gold. The result has been choppy conditions across crypto and broader blockchain markets.
Realized losses signal a distribution phase
According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin rolling 30-day realized profit and loss metric has moved into negative territory. This indicator measures whether coins moved onchain during a given period were sold at a profit or loss relative to their acquisition price. Over the past month, Bitcoin transactions have, on average, been settled at a loss.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, noted that this marks the first sustained 30-day realized loss period since October 2023. While negative readings do not automatically imply a major price crash, they often reflect a distribution phase where holders who bought near recent highs begin to exit positions, adding supply pressure even if spot prices consolidate sideways.
This behavior is consistent with historical Bitcoin cycles. Long-term holders who accumulated BTC in the $60,000 to $90,000 range are now crystallizing losses as macro uncertainty rises, reallocating capital toward cash or defensive assets.
Gold surges as risk appetite weakens
At the same time, gold has surged to record highs above $4,700 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a global safe haven during periods of political and economic stress. Renewed trade war concerns, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, have driven investors away from risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped sharply from its cycle peak, reflecting this rotation. Historically, extreme moves in this ratio have preceded reversals, but in the short term they highlight the pressure facing Bitcoin as macro factors dominate investor decision-making.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reverse recent inflows
Institutional behavior mirrors onchain signals. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $395 million in net outflows, ending a four-day inflow streak that had totaled more than $1.8 billion. The timing aligns closely with the shift into realized losses, suggesting coordinated de-risking rather than isolated selling.
Market participants note that ETF outflows do not necessarily indicate a long-term bearish shift. Instead, they often reflect tactical repositioning during periods of heightened volatility, particularly when macro headlines overshadow crypto-specific fundamentals.
Realized loss cycles as contrarian indicators
Historically, extended periods of realized losses have often preceded important market turning points. Similar patterns appeared during the late-2018 bear market bottom, the mid-2022 capitulation following major industry failures, and the pre-ETF rally phase in late 2023.
Realized losses measure investor pain, not protocol weakness. Bitcoin’s underlying network fundamentals remain intact, with hashrate, long-term holder supply, and institutional infrastructure continuing to develop despite short-term price pressure.
Onchain metrics show underlying resilience
Beyond realized losses, other onchain indicators suggest resilience beneath the surface. Whale wallets continue to accumulate during dips, and exchange balances remain relatively low compared to earlier cycles. This implies that while some holders are exiting, stronger hands are absorbing supply.
ETF assets under management remain substantial, providing a structural source of demand even during periods of outflows. Combined with ongoing adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury and settlement asset, these factors support the longer-term investment thesis.
The bigger picture for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s recent move into realized loss territory reflects a market digesting rapid gains, macro uncertainty, and shifting risk preferences. While gold’s surge highlights investor caution, it also reinforces Bitcoin’s role within a diversified portfolio rather than invalidating its long-term value proposition.
As liquidity conditions evolve and macro pressures stabilize, previous cycles suggest that periods of realized losses often lay the groundwork for future accumulation and recovery. For long-term participants, these phases have historically rewarded patience rather than panic.
