Metric Suggests Bitcoin Has Been in a Bear Market for 2 Months
Recent crypto news analysis indicates Bitcoin may have entered a bear market as early as early November 2025, based on key technical indicators and on-chain metrics. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, shared this assessment, suggesting the digital asset could test $56,000–$60,000 lows sometime in 2026. While this outlook challenges more optimistic blockchain forecasts, it aligns with historical patterns observed during previous downturns.
Early Bitcoin investors and crypto pur veterans often view such corrections as healthy resets, creating opportunities for stronger fundamentals to emerge amid reduced speculation.
Technical Confirmation of Bear Market Conditions
During a recent appearance on The Milk Road show, Julio Moreno explained that multiple components of CryptoQuant’s bull score index flipped bearish around early November. This proprietary metric combines network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity conditions into a 0–100 score.
“The last confirmation is a technical indicator: the price going below its one-year moving average,” Moreno stated. A one-year moving average smooths price data over 12 months to reveal long-term trends. Bitcoin’s breach of this threshold provided the definitive signal of shifting market dynamics.
Bitcoin started 2025 near $93,000, surged to a cycle high of $126,080 in October, then retreated below its opening price by year-end. As of Friday, BTC traded around $88,543, reflecting ongoing pressure despite institutional support.
Projected Bottom Based on Realized Price
Drawing from past crypto bear markets, Moreno forecasts Bitcoin’s floor between $56,000 and $60,000. This range corresponds to Bitcoin’s realized price, the average acquisition cost across all holders on the blockchain.
“Realized price acts as a natural floor during bear markets,” Moreno explained. “It deviates sharply upward during bull runs but reverts toward that average during corrections, serving as a base expectation for bottoms.”
A decline from current levels to $56,000 would represent roughly a 55% drawdown from October highs. Moreno views this as relatively mild compared to the 70–80% crashes seen in prior cycles like 2018 and 2022.
Why This Bear Market Feels Different
Unlike previous downturns marred by catastrophic failures, today’s environment shows greater structural stability. The 2022 bear market saw the Terra/LUNA collapse in May, Celsius bankruptcy in June, and FTX implosion in November events that amplified panic selling and destroyed billions in value.
No equivalent high-profile disasters have emerged during this correction. Instead, blockchain technology has matured with more reliable projects, enhanced custody solutions, and growing institutional participation. Large players like corporate treasuries and Bitcoin ETFs continue periodic accumulation rather than mass liquidation.
“Demand dynamics have structurally improved,” Moreno noted. “ETFs and institutions buy consistently without panic selling, creating a more resilient floor than in past cycles.”
This steady buying pressure from sophisticated investors helps explain why Bitcoin has avoided deeper corrections despite bearish technicals. Crypto pur communities interpret this resilience as evidence that blockchain adoption has crossed an important threshold.
Contrasting Analyst Expectations
Moreno’s bearish call diverges from mainstream forecasts, positioning 2026 as Bitcoin’s growth year. Many analysts anticipated continued upside following the April 2024 halving, expecting institutional inflows and regulatory tailwinds to drive new highs.
However, the failure to sustain above $100,000 through late 2025 forced a reassessment. Technical breakdowns like the one-year moving average breach now suggest a multi-quarter consolidation rather than immediate recovery.
Opportunity Amid Market Carnage
For seasoned traders, bear markets represent accumulation phases. A $56,000–$60,000 bottom would align with historical support zones where strong hands enter positions. Crypto news regularly highlights how past lows preceded multi-year bull runs, particularly as network fundamentals strengthened during quiet periods.
While short-term sentiment remains cautious, Bitcoin’s blockchain continues processing record transaction volumes, securing global value transfers, and powering layer-2 innovations. Patient crypto pur investors recognize that price cycles represent only one dimension of adoption, infrastructure growth and payment utility continue advancing regardless of short-term charts.
