2026 will be red for Bitcoin, but payment tech will improve: BTC OGs
2026 is shaping up to be a difficult price year for Bitcoin, but several early BTC adopters believe it will be an important step forward for real-world payments and blockchain technology innovation in the broader crypto news cycle. The focus is shifting from pure price speculation toward usability, infrastructure, and long-term adoption by the crypto pur community.
Bitcoin price outlook for 2026
Veteran Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin expects the current market downturn to extend through most of 2026, with BTC potentially bottoming near the $60,000 level in the fourth quarter. He frames that zone as a buying opportunity, arguing that fear-driven selling could set the stage for renewed accumulation ahead of the next halving-driven supply shock later in the decade. Terpin still assigns a limited probability to new all-time highs before the eventual cycle low, but says those odds shrink as the downtrend grinds on.
Macro conditions and politics are another key variable. A more dovish Federal Reserve chair lowering interest rates could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, while a failure by Republicans to control both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms could, in Terpin’s view, “cripple” the current pro-crypto regulatory momentum in the United States. That tension between easier monetary policy and uncertain regulation helps explain why analysts now see 2026 as a consolidation year rather than a blow-off top.
From missed moonshots to a reset year
Heading into 2025, many forecasters were calling for a spectacular Bitcoin blow-off, with price targets between $180,000 and $250,000 widely discussed in crypto news and research pieces. Instead, BTC is set to close that year below the six-figure highs seen in January, reinforcing the idea that markets had already priced in much of the post-halving optimism. For long-time crypto pur participants, the failure to match those lofty targets has turned 2025–2026 into more of a reset phase than an explosive supercycle.
That reset does not necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend. Rather, it suggests that cycles may be lengthening and that future rallies will depend less on hype and more on structural drivers such as institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and integration with everyday payment rails. In that context, sideways or even negative yearly candles can coexist with a broader decade-long grind higher.
2026: From holding BTC to using BTC
Early adopter and blockchain developer Rich Rines draws a sharp distinction between 2025 and 2026: “2025 made Bitcoin easier to hold and earn yield on; 2026 should make it easier to actually use.” That view reflects a noticeable shift in development priorities across the blockchain ecosystem, from financial products for long-term holders to tools aimed at everyday spending and merchant acceptance. Neobanks that natively support BTC, digital infrastructure providers, and Bitcoin-backed stablecoins are all part of this transition.
One major step came when payments firm Square integrated Bitcoin directly into its point-of-sale platforms. Merchants can now accept BTC at checkout and, if they choose, automatically convert a portion, such as 1% of their daily sales, into Bitcoin. This type of seamless integration reduces friction for businesses that want BTC exposure without taking on full price volatility or technical complexity.
Lightning Network and payment rails
Underpinning much of this payment-focused optimism is the Bitcoin Lightning Network, a layer‑2 protocol designed to move BTC transactions off-chain while settling final balances on the main blockchain. By opening bidirectional payment channels between users, Lightning allows near‑instant, low‑fee transfers that are later aggregated into a single on‑chain settlement transaction. This makes it more practical to use Bitcoin for small, frequent payments such as tipping, remittances, and micro‑commerce.
Graham Krizek, founder of Lightning company Voltage, has suggested that Lightning could capture up to 5% of global stablecoin flows by 2028, especially if better user interfaces and custodial options emerge. For the crypto pur segment that values censorship resistance and open access, routing stable-value payments over Bitcoin’s security model via Lightning represents a compelling blend of blockchain technology and real‑world functionality.
Why a “red” year can still be bullish
Taken together, these perspectives paint 2026 as a likely “red” or flat year for Bitcoin’s price but a constructive one for the network’s evolution. A lower or sideways BTC chart does not preclude advances in merchant tools, neobank integrations, Lightning adoption, and regulatory normalization. Instead, it may give builders space to focus on usability rather than speculation, laying groundwork for the stronger rallies some expect in 2028–2029 and beyond.
For traders, that could mean volatility and opportunity around a potential Q4 bottom. For long-term participants committed to blockchain-based money, it’s a reminder that price cycles are only one part of the story; the parallel improvement in infrastructure and payments may prove just as important to Bitcoin’s ultimate role in global finance.
