‘Uptober’ Rally Under Scrutiny as Crypto Markets Slide Days Before October

Hopes for another historic “Uptober” rally in Bitcoin and crypto may be fading fast, as both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) dropped to multi-week lows just nine days before October. While October is traditionally a strong month for crypto with BTC gaining in 10 of the last 12 years—analysts are divided on whether positive seasonality will overpower macro headwinds in 2025.

Bitcoin Slides Despite “Uptober” Hype

On Monday, Bitcoin dropped to a twelve-day low of $114,270, while total crypto market capitalization lost $80 billion in hours. Ether also dipped below $4,300, its lowest level in two weeks. The pullback comes even as traders highlighted Bitcoin’s historical October strength:

• 10 out of 12 Octobers since 2013 have been “green” for Bitcoin, with gains of 48% in 2017 and 40% in 2021.
• In the last bull markets, surges in October fueled rallies to record highs, feeding the “Uptober” narrative.

A comparable rally this year would see Bitcoin climb toward $165,000, but current market sentiment is far less optimistic.

Rate Cuts and Liquidity: The Bullish Case

Some crypto bulls argue that macroeconomic tailwinds are quietly assembling.

• Bitcoiner Kyle Chassé noted a rising 92% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in October, according to CME futures, saying the easing cycle is “basically priced in” and new liquidity “is the fuel Bitcoin and crypto thrive on”.
• Analyst “Sykodelic” predicted markets would bottom around $112,500 before surging “to new highs and the start of the explosive final leg” of the bull cycle.
• Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) believes that crypto will re-enter “up only mode” once the US Treasury finishes filling its General Account, after it recently surpassed $850 billion. When this liquidity drain is over, “up only can resume,” Hayes said.

Bears Highlight Macro Risks and Low Volatility

However, not everyone shares the euphoric outlook:

• Augustine Fan at SignalPlus cautioned that “muted” rallies are likely given low volatility, waning digital asset treasury flows, and persistent profit-taking.
• Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE exchange, said Uptober’s bullish trend “is less likely to occur this year given the macro uncertainty and the fact that September hasn’t seen markets fall.” He added aggressive Fed stimulus could change this, but it’s not assured.
• Several analysts warn that unless Bitcoin quickly regains upward momentum, the seasonal rally could disappoint, especially given a backdrop of profit-taking and lower inflows from institutional asset managers.

Key Levels and Market Signals

• Bitcoin support: $112,500 (watch for reaction if this is tested).
• Upside scenario: Rate cuts and increased liquidity could deliver another “Uptober” surge, as in 2017/2021.
• Downside risk: Low volatility, weak sentiment, and macro caution could cap any rallies and keep prices consolidating or slipping further.

Conclusion: Is Uptober “Up Only” or a Fading Crypto Myth?

With October approaching, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, upcoming inflation data, and the broader macro backdrop. Crypto’s historic October trend remains a beacon of hope for bulls, but analysts insist this year’s rally is anything but guaranteed especially after the sharp market reversal in late September.

• If history repeats, Bitcoin could see explosive gains.
• If macro risks persist, Uptober could fall flat for the first time since 2018.

As traders brace for October, the great Uptober debate will test whether bullish seasonality or global uncertainties dominate crypto’s next big move.