‘Strong Chance’ the US Will Announce Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, Says Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn
There is growing speculation that the United States may announce the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) by the end of 2025, with leading industry voices like Galaxy Digital’s research head Alex Thorn suggesting that the market is underestimating the likelihood of such a move. While optimism is high, other experts remain cautious yet developments throughout the year signal that momentum for a federal Bitcoin stockpile is building rapidly.
Multiple Signs Point to Progress in US Bitcoin Reserve Plans
President Trump signed an executive order in March to establish both the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile, directing the Treasury and other agencies to consolidate seized and forfeited bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than auctioning it off as in past years. The order outlines:
- Creating a permanent SBR, initially funded with bitcoin already in federal custody from forfeitures.
- Stopping further sales of government-held bitcoin, and instead, holding it “like a digital Fort Knox.”
- Directing agencies to report all digital asset holdings to the Treasury and the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.
Recent legislative initiatives also boost the narrative: Congress has introduced bills requiring the Treasury to study and report on the technical and legal considerations for managing the reserve, while prominent administration officials continue to voice support for using bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
Debate: Will the Reserve Arrive This Year?
While Thorn places high odds on a major announcement in 2025, some experts are not convinced of an imminent public move. David Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, suggests any actual buying or official reserve formation is more likely to occur quietly first, with publicity delayed until after government accumulation goals are reached. Market observers note the administration has been cautious in its public communications, perhaps to maximize the US’s first-mover advantage before other nations act.
Geopolitical Urgency: The Risk of Falling Behind
Advocates warn that the US risks being overtaken in the digital asset space if it continues to delay. Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently emphasized the need for swift action, warning that foreign competitors like Pakistan or Kyrgyzstan, which passed new Bitcoin reserve laws, may “front-run” the US’s efforts. Similarly, Indonesia’s government is actively evaluating its own bitcoin reserve as a tool for long-term economic growth.
What Would an Official US Bitcoin Reserve Mean?
If established, the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would:
- Cement the US as the largest, most influential state holder of bitcoin already holding nearly 200,000 BTC obtained in forfeiture actions.
- Signal official recognition of bitcoin’s role as a modern reserve asset, akin to gold or the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Encourage other countries to embrace bitcoin as a central component of their monetary reserves, potentially increasing global demand and mainstreaming sovereign BTC accumulation.
- Consolidate all government-held bitcoin into secure cold storage for long-term security, transparency, and budget neutrality, without direct taxpayer purchase outlays.
Key Challenges Remain
Despite optimistic projections, questions linger for 2025 and beyond:
- What governance and transparency procedures will be adopted for federal digital asset reserves?
- Will additional legislation be required to formalize allocations or enable further government BTC purchases?
- How will reserve management interact with other financial laws and disclosure obligations?
With regulatory groundwork laid and political momentum growing, the stage is set for the US to become the world’s most influential Bitcoin custodian. As the administration weighs when and how to make its move, the market may soon need to reckon with a new era of government-backed digital reserves.
