Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Unbroken: Expect a 70% Drawdown, Says VC, as Blockchain Market Matures
Despite growing institutional adoption and evolving macroeconomic drivers, the ancient rhythm of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains alive and could mean a dramatic 65–70% correction for BTC in the next downturn, according to Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki. This outlook, which is stirring debate in the crypto news and crypto pur communities, asserts that a lack of understanding about Bitcoin’s economic fundamentals will prompt panic selling at the next sign of trouble, preserving the pattern of steep post-peak declines.
The Four-Year Cycle Debate: Is Bitcoin Still Predictable?
Since its creation, Bitcoin’s price has followed a recurring four-year boom-and-bust rhythm, historically tied to “halving” events that reduce the supply of new coins entering the market and typically fuel parabolic price surges. Budki, speaking at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, is bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory forecasting a $1 million price tag within the decade but warns that cyclical volatility remains a fixture. “Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000. The problem is people don’t know its utility, and when people buy assets they don’t fully understand, they’re first to sell,” he explained.
Other analysts, like Arthur Hayes of BitMEX, contend that Bitcoin’s price is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic trends such as interest rates and money supply rather than rigid cycles. Hayes has declared the four-year model “dead,” citing 2024’s all-time high pre-halving as evidence of rapidly evolving market dynamics. Yet, others believe institutional involvement has stabilized Bitcoin prices, reducing volatility but not eliminating price cycles altogether.
Institutional Holdings and Market Dynamics
The landscape is changing: According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, over 4 million BTC nearly 20% of all Bitcoin are held collectively by governments, ETFs, digital asset treasuries, and major exchanges. This institutional grip is seen by some as a counterbalance that dampens retail-driven volatility. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, contends the four-year rhythm remains because most investors still see Bitcoin as a risk-on asset rather than a pure store of value.
Bullish Long-Term Projections Remain Strong
Despite the looming threat of a 70% retracement, bullish price targets abound. Experts like Michael Saylor, Anthony Scaramucci (SkyBridge), and Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) project Bitcoin could reach anywhere from $170,000 to $1 million in the coming years, while others argue this cycle could defy tradition with a slower, more durable rally driven by corporate treasuries and ETF inflows.
- Supply shocks from halving events and expanding institutional adoption provide bullish technical and fundamental underpinnings.
- Macro trends, including fiscal policy and inflation, are now critical to cycle analysis potentially reshaping the length and severity of bear markets.
Real-World Utility and the Road to $1 Million BTC
Long-term adoption will, according to Budki and others, ultimately be driven by Bitcoin’s real-world use cases beyond speculation ranging from remittances to decentralized finance. This transition, powered by robust blockchain technology, could insulate Bitcoin from cycle-driven busts in the future, but universal adoption is still some years away.
Conclusion
The four-year cycle is far from dead: Even as blockchain technology gains ground and traditional finance enters the crypto pur sector, Bitcoin’s price cycles and sharp drawdowns remain a fixture, at least for the foreseeable future. While $1 million BTC is a popular target, investors should brace for historic volatility and remain mindful of the asset’s deeply cyclical roots in the crypto market.
