Bitcoin looks far from overbought as ‘stars are aligned’ for ETF surge
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate strong upward momentum, with analysts suggesting it remains far from “overbought” conditions despite recently reaching a historic new high. According to experts, including Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Bitcoin’s positive trajectory is expected to drive record inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the fourth quarter, marking an exciting phase for both investors and the crypto pur community.
Bitcoin’s current price cycle and momentum
Bitcoin hit an impressive peak of over $126,000 on Monday, positioning it roughly halfway through its typical four-year price cycle. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain highlighted that despite this peak, Bitcoin is trading within a stable range, not showing the extreme overbought levels that often signal an imminent downturn in historical cycles.
The digital asset’s 30-day moving average currently stands just below $116,000, reflecting steady upward momentum without sudden price swings. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation, a measure of price volatility—is relatively low at $4,540. This compression in volatility often precedes strong price movements, especially on the upside, supported by fresh liquidity inflows.
Historically, Bitcoin reaches its cycle peak up to 600 days following its halving event, when mining rewards reduce by half. According to analysts, Bitcoin is now within this crucial window, indicating a potential lead-up to a major bull market peak. This outlook is an important signal in crypto news for those tracking blockchain market cycles.
Record ETF inflows predicted in Q4
Adding to the bullish outlook, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan forecasted a surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows during the fourth quarter of 2025. Hougan anticipates that inflows will break records, potentially exceeding the $36 billion attracted during the ETFs’ record-setting first year.
So far in 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $22.5 billion in inflows, putting them on track to end the year with approximately $30 billion. Hougan explains that higher Bitcoin prices often generate increased demand for ETFs as media coverage intensifies, drawing attention from retail investors, companies, and institutional traders alike. This cyclic relationship means strong price gains frequently lead to substantial ETF inflows.
Hougan stated, “From where I sit, the stars are aligned for a very strong Q4 for flows, more than enough to push us to a new record.” His bullish stance on Bitcoin returns this quarter underpins his confidence in sustained ETF interest.
The role of the “debasing trade” and expanding institution interest
Another factor supporting Q4 optimism is what Hougan calls the “debasing trade” – investors seeking well-performing assets able to hedge against a weakening US dollar. Both Bitcoin and gold have shown resilience in this environment, making them attractive picks for wealth managers and individual investors.
Large wealth management platforms are increasingly embracing Bitcoin ETFs, allowing a broader range of investors to participate. A recent Morgan Stanley report indicated 16,000 advisers could allocate up to 4% of multi-asset portfolios to cryptocurrencies, particularly for risk-tolerant clients. This shift signals growing mainstream acceptance of blockchain-based assets within traditional finance.
The ETF market has already started strong in Q4, with $3.5 billion in net inflows during the first four trading days. Hougan believes the momentum will continue, suggesting investors could pour in an additional $10 billion or more before year-end.
What this means for blockchain and crypto pur followers
For followers of blockchain technology and the crypto pur community, these developments highlight the expanding integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial products. ETFs serve as accessible, regulated investment vehicles that enable users to gain exposure to Bitcoin without direct wallet management, thereby accelerating digital asset adoption among conventional investors.
As ETFs attract record inflows, they can also enhance liquidity and market stability, supporting Bitcoin’s long-term growth. This trend features prominently in recent crypto news, reflecting a maturing ecosystem where institutional acceptance and innovative blockchain applications are reshaping the investment landscape.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent price strength and steady momentum signal that it remains far from being overbought, with analysts and investment officers like Matt Hougan predicting record-breaking ETF inflows in Q4 2025. The convergence of solid technical indicators, institutional interest, and macroeconomic factors such as the weakening US dollar point to a promising period ahead for Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiasts alike.
For those engaged in the crypto pur movement and the broader blockchain space, this surge in ETF activity represents growing mainstream endorsement, signaling that Bitcoin is poised to maintain its leadership in the evolving world of digital finance.
This evolving story will continue dominating crypto news as Bitcoin charts its course toward new heights and blockchain technology further cements its place in modern finance.
