‘Very Likely’ Bitcoin Cycle Will Continue in Some Form, Says Gemini Exec

Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle remains a hot topic in crypto news and continues to inform investment strategies across the blockchain and crypto pur landscape. According to Gemini’s Saad Ahmed, while market conditions and institutional involvement are evolving, the cycle driven as much by human emotion as blockchain technology will likely persist, albeit in an adapted form.

The Enduring Power of the Four-Year Cycle

The four-year Bitcoin cycle, rooted in scheduled halving events that reduce the rate at which new BTC enters circulation, has historically led to dramatic run-ups followed by sharp corrections.

• Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of APAC, argues that these cycles are perpetuated by “people get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium.”
• He asserts that the cycle’s persistence is, at its core, psychological making it a self-fulfilling prophecy even as the market matures.

Human Emotion vs. Blockchain Technology

Ahmed emphasizes that despite increased institutional adoption and more sophisticated trading tools, the essential drivers of price swings remain emotional.

• FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) chases prices higher in bull markets, while panic, fueled by uncertainty, leads to mass selloffs in downtrends.
• Even with major players like hedge funds and asset managers in the mix, these emotional dynamics haven’t disappeared they simply evolve as blockchain technology becomes more entrenched.

The Institutional Effect: Softer Cycles, Still Cyclical

Institutional investors tend to have longer-term perspectives, deep liquidity, and the discipline to avoid hasty capitulation. Ahmed believes their growing presence could “flag off” some of the market’s previously extreme volatility, but it will not eliminate cyclical patterns entirely:

“You’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by human emotion,” he says.

Does the Four-Year Cycle Still Track Bitcoin’s Price?

Analytics firm Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s current price behavior still echoes the classic four-year rhythm, particularly around halving events. Renowned analyst Rekt Capital suggests that, if history repeats, the market could peak as soon as October 2025 roughly 550 days after the latest April 2024 halving.

• Q4, especially October, has been Bitcoin’s historically most lucrative period: since 2013, the fourth quarter has averaged nearly 79% returns according to CoinGlass.
• Bitcoin’s recent rally up over 11% in the past week and close to its all-time high of $124,100 indicates the cycle may be in its “peak” window if past patterns persist.

The Evolving Cycle: Crypto Pur Perspective

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and other industry leaders note that while future cycles may not look like those of the past, periods of euphoria, correction, and equilibrium will always be present when human psychology meets blockchain technology.

• He expects 2026 to be an “up year,” reflecting optimism for the sector’s long-term trajectory, even if the four-year rhythm becomes less exact.

Why the Cycle Still Matters for Blockchain Adoption

• Understanding the interplay of emotion, institutional adaption, and code remains vital for crypto pur advocates and market watchers.
• While blockchain technology is redefining global finance, the human factor ensures that cycles however changed aren’t going away anytime soon.

As crypto news headlines track the latest market moves, the message is clear: blockchain progress and human nature continue to drive Bitcoin’s story, making cycle awareness a crucial skill for investors in the evolving crypto pur era.