Bitcoin Breakout at $120K Could Lead to Rapid $150K Surge, Says Capriole’s Charles Edwards
Bitcoin’s rally above the critical $120,000 mark could trigger a swift advance to a new all-time high of $150,000 before year-end driven by a surge in institutional demand and gold’s renewed safe-haven appeal according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. This perspective, grounded in strong technical and macroeconomic trends, is one of the most closely watched forecasts as the fourth quarter of 2025 begins.
$120,000: The Key Level for Breakout Momentum
In an interview at Token2049 Singapore, Edwards outlined the momentum behind Bitcoin’s rebound:
- BTC recently surged over 6%, retaking $121,000 for the first time since August, cementing the break above key resistance.
- Edwards told Cointelegraph:“I wouldn’t be surprised if we went up to $150,000 in a pretty short time, like we have to break out of the $120,000 range. But that’s probably coming, potentially in the next days.”
If Bitcoin holds above $120K, Edwards sees a “very quick” escalation to $150K, a target he believes could be reached before the end of 2025 as market sentiment and technical setups align.
Institutional Demand Surging: Gold and 401(k) Access
A confluence of institutional trends is fueling the new push:
- Safe-haven demand: As gold’s price soars amidst global uncertainty, risk-averse investors and institutions are increasing Bitcoin allocations to hedge against fiat debasement and inflation.
- Retirement plan flows: Bitwise’s André Dragosch highlighted that the inclusion of crypto in US 401(k) retirement plans could unleash $122 billion or more in capital. Even a 1% allocation by these managers could propel Bitcoin to $200,000, with upside far beyond Edwards’ base case.
- Strong ETF inflows and renewed institutional adoption are adding further momentum.
Four-Year Cycle and Bullish Technical Patterns
Edwards reinforced the resilient four-year crypto market cycle theory, suggesting it may be “self-fulfilling” as investors adjust portfolios with each halving and market milestone.
- Q4 seasonality: Historically, Bitcoin delivers its best returns in the final quarter with average gains of 20% in October, 46% in November, and 4% in December.
- Chart patterns: Analysts note the emergence of golden cross technical setups and bullish chart signals supporting projections of $150K in the coming months.
Other Analysts: Even More Bullish on BTC
While Edwards’ $150K forecast is ambitious, other major voices are even more optimistic:
- Outlook to $200K–$280K: Several analysts, including Bitwise’s Dragosch and crypto fund strategists, highlight the potential impact of ETF inflows, macro liquidity, and new corporate treasuries, predicting price targets up to $250K and beyond in 2025.
What to Watch Next
- Key upside triggers: Continued ETF flows, further gold rallies, growing institutional adoption, and confirmation of a decisive breakout above $120K.
- Risk factors: Sudden changes in monetary policy, unexpected macro shocks, or stalls in institutional buying could dampen momentum.
- Q4 seasonality: October–December historically delivers explosive returns if the breakout holds.
If recent history and prevailing technicals align, Bitcoin’s breakout above $120,000 could indeed mark the opening bell for its next parabolic move with $150,000 now within sight before year-end.
